How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Fenerbahce and 1.3 from Besiktas, so Fenerbahce come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Fenerbahce come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.5 goals between the two (xG 2.1-1.3), landing about 65% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.72, which works out at about 58 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Fenerbahce have won three of the last five meetings.
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