How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Over 2.5 goals 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Gaziantep and 2.2 from Fenerbahce, so Fenerbahce come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.5 goals between the two (xG 1.4-2.2), landing about 66% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Fenerbahce have won five of the last five meetings.
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