How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Basel and 1.4 from Lugano, so Lugano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Lugano come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 66%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Lugano have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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