What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Basel and 1.4 from Lugano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 63%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. The price is shorter than our own read of about 63%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
