What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Sion and 1.4 from Thun, so Sion come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.3 goals (xG 1.9-1.4), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 76%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We make it about 76% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
