How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Grasshoppers and 1.5 from Zurich, so Grasshoppers come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.9 goals (xG 1.6-1.4) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 67%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Zurich have won four of the last five meetings.
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