How it turned out
We projected about 4.3 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.6 goals from Young Boys and 1.7 from Luzern, so Young Boys come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Young Boys (Draw No Bet). Young Boys are favoured here (xG 2.7-1.6), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Young Boys defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Young Boys have won four of the last five meetings.
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