What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Lugano and 1.1 from St. Gallen, so Lugano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lugano to score 2 or fewer. This is about Lugano's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.6 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 69%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
