How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Lugano host St Gallen at the weekend in a Swiss Super League clash that could decide the top of the table. Lugano sit first with 19 points from seven games and a +13 goal difference. One point separates them from second-placed Sion, so every win matters. St Gallen are fifth, on 10 points and a –2 goal difference, three points behind Basel in fourth and level with Zürich below them. Both clubs played just four days ago, so the short turnaround will test their fitness. The match offers a chance for Lugano to pull away at the summit or for St Gallen to close the gap on the teams above them.
Lugano have been in superb form over their last eight matches, winning seven and drawing one. Their recent results read: a 2-2 draw with Young Boys at home, a 3-1 win away at Basel, a 1-0 home victory over Servette, a 2-1 away success against Sion, a 5-0 demolition of Zürich at home and a 4-1 away triumph over Grasshoppers. In those eight games they have scored 23 goals while conceding only six, keeping three clean sheets. Four of their last five home games have been wins and the only draw came at home as well. Seven of the eight fixtures featured three or more goals, and both sides found the net in five of them. The run shows a team that can score freely and also protect a lead.
St Gallen’s last eight outings have been more uneven. They have recorded three wins, two draws and three defeats. Their recent sequence includes a 3-0 loss at home to Sion, a 2-0 away win over Servette, a 2-0 defeat away at Grasshoppers, a 4-3 home loss to Thun, a 2-2 draw with Luzern at home and a 3-2 away win against Vaduz. On the road they have won two of their last three games. Across those eight matches they have scored 13 goals and let in 15, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to score in two games. Five of the fixtures saw three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them. The side has shown they can hit the net but also that they can be vulnerable at the back.
When the two clubs meet, the recent history favours St Gallen. In the last five meetings Lugano have not won, St Gallen have taken three victories and two games have ended in draws. Those encounters have produced an average of 2.4 goals per match. The most recent meeting on 10 May saw St Gallen beat Lugano 2-1 away. Given Lugano’s strong home record and St Gallen’s mixed form, the game is likely to be tight, with both sides aware of what is at stake. Expect a cautious approach, few clear chances and a modest goal tally.
We think the game will stay under 4.5 goals and we back that outcome. The price of 1.30 is shorter than our own reading of the match, which suggests a low-scoring affair. Our chance of the pick being right sits at 71 out of 100. For it to go wrong, the game would need to open up dramatically, with both teams scoring three or more goals each, something that has not been common in their recent meetings. As it stands, a cagey contest with only a couple of goals looks the most likely scenario.
Recent results
St. Gallen have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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