How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Luzern and 1.4 from Grasshoppers, so Luzern come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Grasshoppers to score. This is about Grasshoppers's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Luzern have won four of the last five meetings.
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