Luzern v Basel: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Luzern to score 2 or fewer 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from Luzern and 1.6 from Basel, so Luzern come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Basel come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Luzern to score 2 or fewer. This is about Luzern's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 72%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.