How it turned out
We projected about 4.8 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Luzern look a bit stronger than Vaduz on paper. The goal expectations are 2.6 for Luzern and 2.2 for Vaduz, which adds up to almost five goals in the game. That suggests both teams will have chances and the match could open up, but Luzern have the edge.
Looking at recent form, Luzern have only managed one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five league outings. Vaduz have been poorer, with just one win and four losses in the same span. In the last five meetings between the two clubs, Luzern have won twice, there have been three draws and Vaduz have not won. Those games have averaged three goals, and the most recent encounter in May 2021 ended 2-1 to Luzern.
We think the safest call is Under 4.5 goals. The price of 1.41 matches our view of the game. Our own chance of this hitting is about 73 out of 100, so we feel confident that the total will stay below the line. It is a close call, but the odds are right for us.
For the pick to go wrong we would need a very open match with both sides scoring heavily – at least five goals in total. That would require both teams to be far more efficient than their recent results suggest. We hold our view fairly strongly, but we know a goal-fest would break it.
Recent results
Luzern have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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