Thun v Lausanne: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Thun (Draw No Bet) 68%, but the stake came back in full.

What we said beforehand

Thun look the stronger side on paper, with our goal estimate giving them about two goals to Lausanne’s one. The numbers suggest an open game where both teams will have chances. It should be a match with action at both ends rather than a tight, defensive slog.

Both clubs have struggled recently, each winning just one of their last five league games and losing three. Lausanne come in on three straight defeats, while Thun’s recent form is similar. In their last five meetings Thun have won three times, Lausanne once and there has been one draw, with an average of three goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 5-1 win for Thun in February, which hints at the kind of scoring we might see again.

We back Thun with a Draw No Bet. The price of 1.52 matches our view of the game, and we feel comfortable with a 68 % chance of success. The draw-no-bet option removes the risk of a level result, so only a Thun loss would hurt us.

For the pick to go wrong, Lausanne would need to turn their three-game losing streak around and keep a clean sheet while scoring at least twice. That would be a big swing from the recent pattern. Our view is fairly strong, but we recognise the recent poor form of both sides means an upset is possible.