How it turned out
We projected about 4.9 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Young Boys to win 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.2 goals from Young Boys and 1.7 from Vaduz, so Young Boys come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Vaduz come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Young Boys to win. Young Boys are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.2-1.7), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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