How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win 33%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Bukovyna Chernivtsi and 0.9 from Zorya, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win. Bukovyna Chernivtsi are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 0.9-0.9), and we make them about 35% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 33 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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