How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Polissya Zhytomyr to win 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Polissya Zhytomyr and 0.5 from Liviy Bereh, so Polissya Zhytomyr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Polissya Zhytomyr to win. Polissya Zhytomyr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.5), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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