What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Chornomorets Odesa and 0.8 from Obolon Kyiv, so Chornomorets Odesa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Chornomorets Odesa to win. Chornomorets Odesa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.8), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
