What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from LNZ Cherkasy and 0.5 from Obolon Kyiv, so LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: LNZ Cherkasy to win. LNZ Cherkasy are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.5), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
