Dynamo Kyiv v LNZ Cherkasy: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Dynamo Kyiv to win 53%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Dynamo Kyiv and 0.9 from LNZ Cherkasy, so Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Dynamo Kyiv to win. Dynamo Kyiv are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.