What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Karpaty and 1.8 from Shakhtar Donetsk, so Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Shakhtar Donetsk shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.8), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Karpaty a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 52%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
