Karpaty v Shakhtar Donetsk: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Shakhtar Donetsk to win 50%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Karpaty and 1.8 from Shakhtar Donetsk, so Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Shakhtar Donetsk come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Shakhtar Donetsk shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.8), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.