How it turned out
We projected about 1.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made FC Kolos Kovalivka (Draw No Bet) 69%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from FC Kolos Kovalivka and 0.6 from Obolon Kyiv, so FC Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: FC Kolos Kovalivka (Draw No Bet). FC Kolos Kovalivka are favoured here (xG 1.2-0.6), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a FC Kolos Kovalivka defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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