What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Albion and 0.9 from Club Atlético Progreso, so Albion come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Albion come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Albion to win. Albion are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.9), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Club Atlético Progreso only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 55%.
