How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Albion to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Albion and 1.1 from Juventud de las Piedras, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Albion come into this on five straight defeats. Juventud de las Piedras come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Albion to win. Albion are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.55, which works out at about 39 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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