How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Deportivo Maldonado to win 39%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Deportivo Maldonado and 0.9 from Cerro Largo, so Deportivo Maldonado come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Deportivo Maldonado to win. Deportivo Maldonado are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Cerro Largo have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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