How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Nacional to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Nacional and 0.9 from Defensor Sporting, so Nacional come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nacional come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.9), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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