Central Español v Montevideo City Torque: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Montevideo City Torque to win 45%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Central Español and 1.4 from Montevideo City Torque, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Central Español come into this on two straight draws. Montevideo City Torque come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Montevideo City Torque to win. Montevideo City Torque shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.4), and we make them about 46% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.