How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Nacional or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Cerro Largo and 1.4 from Nacional, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Nacional or Draw. This covers Nacional or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Nacional have won five of the last five meetings.
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