How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Juventud de las Piedras or Draw 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Juventud de las Piedras host Cerro at home in the Uruguay Primera División on 27 September. Both clubs sit in the middle of the table. Juventud are seventh with 12 points from seven games and a +4 goal difference. Cerro sit one spot above them in sixth place with 13 points, their goal difference even at zero. One point separates the two, while Nacional sit just above Cerro and Racing sit just below Juventud. A win would lift Juventud into the top six and push Cerro down a place, so the three points are valuable for both sides.
Juventud have been inconsistent in their recent run. They have not recorded a win in the last three fixtures, losing 3-0 to Celtic and 4-1 to Kilmarnock before a 0-0 draw with Racing. Those three games have left them with only one point from the last nine, and their goal tally has dropped sharply. The string of defeats has hurt their confidence, but the clean sheet against Racing shows they can still keep a game tight when they need to.
Cerro have also struggled to find form. Their last three results are a 2-2 draw with Nacional, a 1-1 stalemate against Racing and a 0-0 draw with Juventud in their previous meeting. They have not managed a win in four games, but they have kept the scorelines low and have managed to score in two of those matches. The most recent 0-0 draw demonstrated their ability to defend well and to limit the opposition’s chances, even if they have not been able to finish the chances they create.
When the two teams met before, the match ended 0-0, a game with few chances and no goals. Both sides showed defensive caution and struggled to break the deadlock. Given the similar recent form and the tight nature of their previous encounter, we expect another low-scoring affair. The numbers suggest a close game, with Juventud slightly more likely to find the net, but both teams have a good chance of keeping the score low.
Our pick is Juventud de las Piedras or a draw. The price of 1.18 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. We believe Juventud have a 77 % chance to score and a 42 % chance to score twice, while Cerro have a 60 % chance to score at all. The game is likely to be tight and low-scoring, so backing Juventud or a draw covers the most probable outcomes. It would go wrong only if Cerro manage to win outright, which would require them to score twice and keep a clean sheet, something that has not happened in their recent games.
Recent results
Cerro have won three of the last five meetings.
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