How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Club Atletico Peñarol to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Club Atletico Peñarol and 0.8 from Boston River, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Club Atletico Peñarol come into this on three straight wins. Boston River come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol to win. Club Atletico Peñarol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.8), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Club Atletico Peñarol have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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