How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Boston River (Draw No Bet) 66%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Boston River and 0.8 from Cerro, so Boston River come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Boston River (Draw No Bet). Boston River are favoured here (xG 1.4-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Boston River defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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