How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Deportivo Maldonado or Draw 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Deportivo Maldonado and 0.8 from Danubio, so Deportivo Maldonado come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Danubio come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportivo Maldonado or Draw. This covers Deportivo Maldonado or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Deportivo Maldonado have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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