How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Racing or Draw 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Defensor Sporting and 1.0 from Racing, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Defensor Sporting come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Racing or Draw. This covers Racing or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Defensor Sporting have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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