How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Nacional or Draw 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Nacional and 1.1 from Liverpool FC, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nacional come into this on five straight wins. Liverpool FC come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional or Draw. This covers Nacional or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Nacional have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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