How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Ilves and 1.8 from HJK, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Ilves come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.9-1.8), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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