What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Mariehamn and 1.4 from Jaro, so Jaro come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Mariehamn come into this on two straight defeats. Jaro come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.2-1.4) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 54%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 54%.
