How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Mariehamn and 1.3 from Jaro, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Mariehamn come into this on two straight wins. Jaro come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.7 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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