How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made HJK to score 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from KuPS and 1.4 from HJK, so KuPS come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
HJK come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: HJK to score. This is about HJK's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 69%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
KuPS have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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