How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Mariehamn to score 1 or fewer 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Mariehamn and 1.6 from TPS, so TPS come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
TPS come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Mariehamn to score 1 or fewer. This is about Mariehamn's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 68%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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