What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Mariehamn and 1.6 from TPS, so TPS come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Mariehamn come into this on three straight wins. TPS come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 0.9-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Mariehamn have won three of their last five.
✓TPS are unbeaten in their last five — one win and four draws.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
1 Aug 2026TPS 3 - 0 Mariehamn
4 Apr 2026Mariehamn 1 - 1 TPS
14 Sept 2020TPS 1 - 1 Mariehamn
16 Aug 2020Mariehamn 1 - 0 TPS
23 Sept 2018Mariehamn 2 - 2 TPS
