What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Lahti and 0.7 from Jaro, so Lahti come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Lahti come into this on three straight wins. Jaro come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lahti to win. Lahti are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.7), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
