What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from SJK and 1.1 from Mariehamn, so SJK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
SJK come into this on two straight draws. Mariehamn come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: SJK to win. SJK are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.1), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
