How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Mariehamn to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
SJK host IFK Mariehamn at home in the Veikkausliiga on 18 September 2026. SJK sit fourth out of six with 21 points from 24 games and a goal difference of minus eight. Mariehamn are fifth, four points behind, with 17 points and a goal difference of minus twenty-six, already in the relegation zone. Ilves sit one place above SJK with a ten-point cushion, while FF Jaro are just one point below Mariehamn. Both clubs are fighting to stay clear of the drop, and a win for either side would tighten the battle at the bottom. The table shows SJK as the stronger side, but the numbers also point to an open game with chances at both ends.
SJK have not won in their last eight matches, recording one win, four draws and three defeats. Their most recent fixtures were a 1-1 draw with Jaro away, a 0-0 stalemate with TPS away, and another 0-0 draw with AC Oulu away. Before that they lost 2-1 to Lahti at home, suffered a 2-0 defeat to Mariehamn away, and drew 2-2 with Gnistan at home. In those eight games they have scored eight goals and let in nine. They kept three clean sheets but also failed to find the net in three matches. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. At home in their last three outings they have one win, one draw and one loss, and they arrive on a run of three straight draws.
Mariehamn’s last eight games have been a mix of four wins and four losses, with no draws. Their most recent results are a 1-0 home win over TPS, a 2-1 away loss to Lahti, another 2-1 loss to FC Lahti away, a 2-0 home victory over Jaro, a 4-2 away win at KuPS, and a 2-0 home win over SJK. On the road in their last five matches they have one win and four defeats. Across those eight games they have scored eleven goals and conceded eleven, keeping three clean sheets while failing to score in two. They also featured three-goal games in four outings, with both sides scoring in three of those. Their last match was six days ago, a 2-0 win over SJK at home, which gave them a clear idea of how they can break down the opposition.
In the five most recent meetings between the clubs, SJK have won four times and Mariehamn once, with no draws. Those games have produced an average of 3.4 goals. The latest encounter, on 15 August 2026, saw Mariehamn beat SJK 2-0 at SJK’s ground. That result shows that Mariehamn can score against the home side, but it also highlights that SJK have struggled to find the net in recent fixtures.
Our pick is for Mariehamn to score one goal or fewer. We expect SJK to be the stronger attacking side, with an 83 % chance of scoring at all and a 55 % chance of scoring twice or more. Mariehamn, on the other hand, have a 61 % chance of scoring at all and only a 26 % chance of finding the net twice. The price of 1.37 matches our reading of the game. The bet looks good because Mariehamn have only scored more than one goal in a quarter of their recent matches and their recent form suggests they will struggle to break down a side that, despite recent draws, still manages to create chances. The pick would fail if Mariehamn rediscover the sharpness they showed in their 2-0 win over SJK and manage to score two or more, but the odds of that happening sit at about 26 %, giving us a 74 % chance of success.
Recent results
SJK have won four of the last five meetings.
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