How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 3.5 goals 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from VPS and 1.0 from Lahti, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.1-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 78%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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