Academia Puerto Cabello v Portuguesa: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 67%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Academia Puerto Cabello and 0.9 from Portuguesa, so Academia Puerto Cabello come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.2 goals (xG 1.3-0.9), and two is enough to land it, landing about 69% of the time on these numbers.

We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.