How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Rayo Zuliano to score 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Trujillanos and 1.3 from Rayo Zuliano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Rayo Zuliano to score. This is about Rayo Zuliano's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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