How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Estudiantes de Mérida to win 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Estudiantes de Mérida and 0.8 from Trujillanos, so Estudiantes de Mérida come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Estudiantes de Mérida to win. Estudiantes de Mérida are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
