Caracas FC v Monagas SC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Monagas SC to score 1 or fewer 76%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Caracas FC and 1.0 from Monagas SC, so Caracas FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Caracas FC come into this on three straight defeats. Monagas SC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Monagas SC to score 1 or fewer. This is about Monagas SC's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.