Caracas FC v Monagas SC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 69%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Caracas FC and 1.0 from Monagas SC, so Caracas FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Caracas FC come into this on three straight defeats. Monagas SC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.5-1.0), and two is enough to land it, landing about 72% of the time on these numbers.

We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.