Deportivo La Guaira v Metropolitanos: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Metropolitanos to score 1 or fewer 74%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.4 goals from Deportivo La Guaira and 1.0 from Metropolitanos, so Deportivo La Guaira come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Metropolitanos to score 1 or fewer. This is about Metropolitanos's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.