Portuguesa v Carabobo: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Carabobo or Draw 71%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.0 goals from Portuguesa and 1.1 from Carabobo, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Carabobo or Draw. This covers Carabobo or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.