How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Austria Salzburg (Draw No Bet) 62%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Austria Wien II and 1.5 from Austria Salzburg, so Austria Salzburg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Austria Salzburg (Draw No Bet). Austria Salzburg are favoured here (xG 1.1-1.5), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Austria Salzburg defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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