How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from SKN St. Pölten and 1.5 from BW Linz, so BW Linz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: BW Linz to win. BW Linz shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
SKN St. Pölten only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 45%.
