How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made FC Wacker Innsbruck (Draw No Bet) 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Kapfenberger SV and 2.0 from FC Wacker Innsbruck, so FC Wacker Innsbruck come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Wacker Innsbruck (Draw No Bet). FC Wacker Innsbruck are favoured here (xG 1.4-2.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a FC Wacker Innsbruck defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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