What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Austria Vienna and 1.0 from Tirol, so Austria Vienna come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Tirol come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Austria Vienna to win. Austria Vienna are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.0), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Tirol a draw or better. We make it about 61% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
