How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Salzburg (Draw No Bet) 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Salzburg look the stronger side on paper. They are expected to score about 1.7 goals while Rapid only about 1.1, so the game should have a slight edge for the home team. With an average of 2.8 goals expected, it is likely to be an open match rather than a defensive slog.
Both clubs come in on good runs. Salzburg have won their last five league games, no draws or losses. Rapid are also in form, with four wins and one loss in their last five. In their last five meetings, Rapid have the edge with three wins to Salzburg’s two, and those games have averaged 2.4 goals. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 win for Rapid in April.
We back Salzburg with a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.37 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so the odds look attractive. Our confidence in this outcome is about 64 % based on the goal expectations and recent form.
The pick would go wrong if the game turns very tight and ends level, or if Rapid manage to keep a clean sheet again. A draw would give us a refund, but a loss for Salzburg would hurt. We still feel fairly strong about the pick, but we acknowledge the recent head-to-head record gives Rapid a chance.
Recent meetings
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